ATP Mutua Madrid Masters Betting: Stan to keep it close but it's Rafa's trophy

12May 2013

ATP Masters 1000

Sean Calvert is incredulous at how Tomas Berdych failed to make the final of the 2013 Mutua Madrid Masters last night, but he's back to select the best bets in this afternoon's championship match between Stan Wawrinka and Rafa Nadal..

Sunday is championship match day at La Caja Magica where at 3pm UK time Rafael Nadal and Stanislas Wawrinka will meet in the final of the 2013 Mutua Madrid Open.

Frankly, I am still struggling to come to terms with exactly how my pre-tournament tip Tomas Berdych managed to choke from 4-2 and 40-15 ahead in the final set against Wawrinka yesterday. A prolonged session on the psychiatrist's couch is the order of the day both for the Czech and for Berdych backers such as myself after that one.

It's good news though for those who backed Wawrinka at upwards of 150.0 outright, as the Swiss number two is into his first Masters 1000 final since Rome 2008 when he lost to Novak Djokovic.

But the signs aren't great for Stan as he is yet to take a set from Nadal in 17 attempts and he's obviously 0-8 in the overall stats, with their most recent meeting coming on the clay of Monte-Carlo last season when Rafa won 7-5, 6-4.

Wawrinka has been playing very well since hooking up with Magnus Norman as his coach and the former world number two has overseen a swift return back to the top-10 for last week's Portugal Open champion when the rankings come out tomorrow regardless of today's result.

There are a couple of big concerns for Wawrinka backers today though. One is his fitness, which has to be questioned after a long fortnight of tennis and the other is the match-up for not just Wawrinka but for any single-handed backhand right-hander.

Rafa is unbeaten on clay by single handed righties since Roger Federer took him down in the final here in Madrid in 2009 and I don't see Stan having the consistency to grab the win today.

He wasn't great yesterday and didn't serve well, which led to Berdych dominating the second and most of the third sets of that clash and although Nadal hasn't been at his best this week in conditions that are far from perfect for him, I can't see him not taking the modestly-named Ion Tiriac Trophy home come this afternoon.

Rafa almost always steps it up in finals even if not playing at his best and I can't say the same about Wawrinka, who still suffers quite badly from nerves and he'll need to serve much better than yesterday and be at his absolute best on his backhand to really test Nadal.

The handicap looks about the best option though, as Stan is in the form to keep it close and the Wawrinka +5.5 games at around 1.6 should pay dividends this afternoon.