ATP Munich and Oeiras Betting: Cilic and Charly the choices for value

29Apr 2013

ATP Új

The clay court swing moves on from Barcelona and Bucharest to Portugal and Germany with two ATP 250 events on the red dirt this week and Sean Calvert selects his best bets at each venue...

The Estoril event has made the short journey east to Oeiras and it's been renamed as the Portugal Open, while the BMW Open remains in Munich.

Last week, I said that the Bucharest event would be won by an outsider and that Lukas Rosol may have some Davis Cup bounce and listed Guillermo Garcia-Lopez as a likely option in the top half of the draw. In the end I plumped for David Goffin, who played well, but lost out to Florian Mayer, but going for an outsider was always the right play in that tournament. Unfortunately, I went for the wrong one.

In Munich once again we have a shaky number one seed in Janko Tipsarevic, who heads a half of the draw that comprises Gael Monfils, Phillip Kohlschreiber, Jurgen Melzer, Thomaz Bellucci, Marcos Baghdatis, Radek Stepanek, Viktor Troicki and Mikhail Youzhny.

The bottom half is headed up by number two seed Marin Cilic, who faces opposition from Nikolay Davydenko, Dmitry Tursunov, Alex Dolgopolov, Tommy Haas, Ernests Gulbis, Jarkko Nieminen, and Mayer.

I like the chances of Kohlschreiber in the top half at home and as defending champion in an event he's won twice, but his woeful performance in the semi finals in Barcelona would have to be forgiven.

Tipsarevic can't be backed at the moment such is his poor form and Monfils and Bellucci both pulled out of tournaments last week and can't really be trusted to perform this week, unless they were saving themselves for this. That seems unlikely though, as Bellucci has never played Munich and Monfils has never won a match here.

For me, the bet would have to be Cilic, who didn't play last week and who has reached the final in Munich twice and has a 13-5 win/loss record at this particular tournament.

The Croatian has never done worse than the quarter finals here and he is preferred over Haas, who doesn't have a great Munich record and Gulbis, who simply can't be trusted to produce. Dolgopolov is always a threat and he would be my second choice in the bottom half at around 16.0, but as ever you take a chance if you back him.

Over in Oeiras, Juan Martin Del Potro pulled out and was replaced late on by David Ferrer, who's looking for some match time on the dirt after losing early in Barcelona in one of the shocks of the year to Tursunov.

Ferrer is drawn alongside Benoit Paire, Andreas Seppi, Tommy Robredo, and not a lot else in the top half, but I'm not convinced that 2.25 is a great bet on Ferrer given his recent fitness problems and that loss to Tursunov. He should win this event of course, but that 2.25 is not for me.

The bottom half looks the place for a bit of value with Stan Wawrinka the obvious choice, but he's a touch short at around 4.5 and I prefer the 23.0 about Carlos Berlocq, who has only played one bad match on the dirt this year so far.

'Charly', like Rosol, last week may still have a bit of Davis Cup bounce about him and he's only lost to Rafa Nadal, David Nalbandian, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Horacio Zeballos on clay this season in compiling a 12-6 win/loss record and beating the likes of Kohlschreiber, Gilles Simon and Albert Ramos, who he faces first up here.

Many's the time that the player I backed at a big price one week comes good the week after and Goffin has a good draw with Fabio Fognini and the out of form Julien Benneteau in his quarter. Don't rule him out at a big 67.0. If he can sort his serve out he can win in this company.

That bottom half of the draw is open if Wawrinka goes early and if he faces Berlocq first up the Argentine has the tools to cause a shock - certainly if Stan plays as badly as he did against Tsonga in his last match in Monte Carlo.

Fognini will have his supporters after his run in Monte Carlo, but 10.0 doesn't appeal to me for a player as inconsistent as Fogna and Berlocq for me is the value pick.

Recommended Bets

Back Cilic at 6.5 in Munich

Back to lay Berlocq at 23.0 in Oeiras