ATP Casablanca Betting: Bautista-Agut the big priced value in Morocco

8Apr 2013

ATP Új

The ATP Tour moves on to the clay court swing and after landing the odds with Andy Murray last time out Sean Calvert has identified some outsiders this week in the Grand Prix Hassan II..

Last week's advice of backing Andy Murray to win the Sony Open proved to be profitable, with the Scot taking the title with a nervy win over David Ferrer in the final in Key Biscayne.

After the break for Davis Cup action the tour makes the move to clay and the opening two events of the red dirt season take place in Casablanca and Houston.

Both of these ATP 250 events are pretty low key, with most of the big names opting to wait until next week's Monte-Carlo Masters for their first clay matches of the year, however both Nico Almagro and Stan Wawrinka are on show this week in Morocco and the USA.

Wawrinka is the number one seed in Casablanca where the Swiss has played once before in 2010 when he won the tournament and he's in the slightly tougher top half of the draw that features opponents such as Jurgen Melzer, Benoit Paire, Tommy Robredo, Edouard Roger-Vasselin and Daniel Gimeno-Traver, as well as Aljaz Bedene, Guillaume Rufin and Tobias Kamke.

I would expect the well-rested Wawrinka to make the final, having enjoyed a few weeks off after Indian Wells, where he was narrowly beaten by Roger Federer and his clay form this year has been good too with a final showing in Buenos Aires, where he was defeated by David Ferrer.

If Melzer is back to form at last after winning the Dallas Challenger and making the Miami quarter finals he could be a threat, but his form on clay over the last year or so has been awful, with nine losses (five of them as a 1.5 favourite or shorter) from his last 11 matches on the dirt I'd be looking for a better price than 11.0.

The bottom half of the draw looks a good opportunity for the two-time defending champion here Pablo Andujar to make an assault on another title, as the top seed in the half is Kevin Anderson, who has never been past the last eight of any tour level clay court event. The big South African has been in good form lately though, so it will be interesting to see how he gets on this week on the dirt.

Andujar looks unlikely to make it a hat-trick of Casablanca titles given his form this year has been very patchy and his record since the US Open last year when he lost a five setter to Feli Lopez is won three and lost 15. He had a poor South American clay swing where he twice lost to Albert Montanes and 11.0 seems way too short on current form.

I would much sooner back Steve Darcis, Paul-Henri Mathieu or Roberto Bautista-Agut in that bottom half than Andujar, as all three are capable of reaching the final from that section and you'll get around 41.0 and upwards on each of them.

Bautista-Agut has been in good form this season and certainly has the quality to reach a final in this sort of company, as he proved on a hard court by reaching the Chennai final in week one of the season, beating Tomas Berdych and Paire before losing to Janko Tipsarevic in the final.

My concern with him is the injury that forced him to retire while leading in Miami, but if that's cleared up he has the beating of the seeded Robin Haase, who's coming straight from Davis Cup on indoor hard, first up. The other seed in that section is the out of form Martin Klizan, who's lost 11 of his last 14 matches.

In summary, Wawrinka should win this, but would you want to be backing a man with just three tour level titles to his name lifetime at around 3.0? I wouldn't and instead it's worth siding with some of the longer shots I've highlighted at big prices.

Recommended Bet

Back to lay Bautista-Agut at 41.0