Aston Villa v Sunderland: Black Cats to keep momentum going

29Apr 2013

England - Premier League

Mike Norman previews Monday night's crucial relegation battle and believes that with momentum on their side Sunderland are a difficult team to oppose under Paolo Di Canio...

Aston Villa v Sunderland

Monday 20:00, live on Sky Sports 1

Monday Night Football comes from Villa Park where Aston Villa have the chance to move five points clear of the relegation zone and join north-east duo Newcastle and Sunderland at the 'one win from safety' stage.

Defeat for Paul Lambert's men however will effectively secure Sunderland's Premier League status and leave the The Villans just two points ahead of the drop zone, teeing up the prospect of a potential 'winner takes all' encounter with Wigan on the final day of the season.

Sunderland's controversial decision to replace Martin O'Neill with flamboyant Italian Paolo Di Canio has paid immediate dividends with victories over Newcastle and Everton, and the Black Cats are the club with the momentum right now. But take away that derby win over the Magpies and Sunderland have just a solitary victory over Wigan to show for their efforts away from home this year.

Lambert has no fresh injury worries following Villa's 3-0 defeat at Old Trafford last Monday, while former Claret and Blue Craig Gardner is available for Sunderland following a two-match suspension.

Match Odds

It's been well documented that Aston Villa have a youthful and inexperienced side, but there's plenty of ability in Lambert's squad and the club will surely benefit from giving youth a chance should they stay in the Premier League.

They also have character. It would have been easy for such a young side to roll over and hide when they went eight games without a win at the start of 2013, but three wins from their last six games has injected some belief that they can stay up. But 2.32 to win this game is too short in my book, especially with Lambert's 'must win' words adding more pressure on some young shoulders.

Laying Villa at 2.34 won't incur too much liability should you keep your stakes at a sensible level but at 3.5 to back a chance is taken on Sunderland. As Opta stats point out they have a very good record at Villa Park, winning two and losing just one of their last five visits.

And the early signs are that every Black Cat is aboard the Di Canio express, putting in a good performance in defeat at Stamford Bridge before those two excellent recent wins where their intensity and work rate was outstanding. Until Sunderland put in a poor performance under their new boss they are a dangerous side to oppose.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals

A tricky one to call, so at 2.08 to back, 'Overs' is the selection. If you're a fan of head-to-head stats however then you'll be all over the 'Unders' (1.9) like a rash. Seven of the last eight meetings between these two have ended with two or less goals being scored, and nine of the last 11 meetings at Villa Park have also resulted in Under 2.5 Goals being the winner.

But take a look at Aston Villa's results in the second half of the season and it's a different story completely. Since Villa drew 0-0 with stoke in December of last year they've played 20 league and cup games with a staggering 17 of those resulting in at least three goals being scored - seven of the 20 would have paid out on Over 3.5 Goals also (available to back at 3.8 this time).

A high number of games involving Sunderland have also resulted with 'Overs' paying out more times than not; 11 of their last 17 games have contained at least three goals to be precise.

Sending Off

This promises to be a game of high intensity. Lambert has billed it as a 'must win' game while Di Canio is sure to have his men fired up. So throw in the Opta stat that tells us that there's been five red cards in the last eight league meetings between these two then odds of 5.0 to see a dismissal this time looks generous.

Recommended Bets

Back Sunderland to win @ 3.5

Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.08

Back Yes to a Sending Off @ 5.0