Aston Villa v Norwich: Will Lambert rue his summer switch?

Paul Lambert welcomes former club Norwich to Villa Park this weekend, but neither party has prospered since their summer split...

Norwich moved out of the relegation zone with their first win of the season last weekend, when Grant Holt's early strike was enough to down Arsenal at Carrow Road.  Meanwhile, Villa were 1-0 losers at Fulham, leaving Paul Lambert's men one point above the relegation zone with only a solitary victory this season.

 

Having guided The Canaries to an admirable 12th place finish (equal on points with 10th place West Brom) last season Lambert opted to jump ship and join Villa.  Although The Villans finished four places lower than Norwich, it was seen, in most quarters, as a step up the managerial ladder for the Scotsman. He may now, however,  be starting regret the decision as the enormity of the task at hand at Villa Park is realised.

 

Having inherited a weak squad lacking confidence, the new manager effect has not been apparent at Villa - Lambert has taken the same amount of points in his first  eight games as Villa manager (five) as Alex McLeish took in his final eight. While at the same time Chris Hughton has been unable to carry on the good work of his  predecessor. This is an extremely important fixture for both clubs and managers.

 

Team News

 

Nathan Barker and Ciaran Clark will undergo late fitness tests for the home side, the former substituted in the lost to Fulham last weekend with an ankle problem.  Richard Dunne and Gary Gardner remain long-term absentees.

 

Steven Whittaker, Jacob Butterfield and Ryan Bennett were all given a run out in the Norwich Under-21 side in midweek. Bennett is the only one of the three likely to  be in the squad this weekend. Whittaker and Butterfield are understood to need some more game time before returning to first-team action.

 

Match Odds

 

With just five points from eight games this is Aston Villa's worst ever start to a Premier League campaign, while their horrendous run of form now reads as just two  wins in their last 16 home matches and only two victories in their last 24 Premier League games at any venue.

 

Given those bare statistics I'm finding it difficult to justify Villa being as short as 2.00 in the Match Odds market.

 

Yes Norwich have also been poor this season - the win over Arsenal was due more to The Gunners' deficiencies than anything Norwich did - but that doesn't justify such  a disparity in the odds. Rather than take into account recent stats, form and styles of play, I feel that price is based largely upon the same reasons as Lambert left  Norwich to join Villa; the Birmingham club are still perceived as a 'bigger' and more fashionable club. Lay the home team at odds of 2.00, or if you're  feeling brave take advantage of the 4.3 value on an away win.

 

Over/Under 2.5 goals

 

Norwich and Villa are the Premier League's joint-lowest scores this season with just six goals apiece from eight games played. But before you go rushing to back the  Under 2.5 selection at odds of 2.14, also consider the fact that Norwich have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last 37 Premier League away games.

 

That said, they may not have had a better chance of doing so than against this lacklustre Villa attack, and there is certainly some value in the Yes selection at odds  of 6.0 in the Norwich clean sheet market.

 

Half Time Score

 

Despite their poor run of form, Villa have started games reasonably well recently, defensively at least, having gone in at half-time without conceding in each of their  last six Premier League matches. The 0-0 is worth a few quid in the Half Time Score market at odds of 3.60.

 

Recommended Bets:

Lay Aston Villa to win @ 2.00

Under 2.5 goals @ 2.14

 

(Source: Betfair)

 

Bet H E R E !

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