Arsenal should turn Unión over

8Feb 2013

Argentina - Torneo Inicial

This weekend sees the return of the Argentine league with the opening fecha of the 2013 Torneo Final, and Ed Malyon shows that there is plenty of value to be found.

Friday

Unión Santa Fe v Arsenal de Sarandí - 22:10

Arsenal are an okay enough side, although there is very little chance of them repeating their feats of a year ago and producing a league title from absolutely nowhere.

They've managed to retain the services of brilliant defender Lisandro Lopez (not the Lyon striker) and have strengthened a little with the addition of San Lorenzo pair Furch and Rolle, with the latter a particularly handy player.

Unión finished rock-bottom of the Torneo Inicial and didn't win a single one of their nineteen games. They are simply not very good. While Arsenal aren't the strongest or meanest side, Santa Fe isn't the longest or most arduous of trips and the Tatengues rarely put up an effective resistance, so the only wise bet to be advised is the away win at 2.38

Argentinos Juniors v Vélez Sarsfield - 00:15

Vélez have made by far the most impressive signing of any Argentine side this January in bringing home Valencia's Fernando Gago to orchestrate their midfield. The former Real Madrid man is still a guaranteed starter in the national team but his desire to return home and be with pregnant wife Gisela Dulko overwhelmed his ambitions to remain in Europe - although everyone had expected him to go to boyhood club Boca Juniors.

Instead he has joined the reigning champions, and under the tutelage of Ricardo Gareca you can expect him to thrive in both the domestic league and the Copa Libertadores. He joins a team peppered with young stars, and none shone brighter than Facundo Ferreyra before Christmas as the striker propelled his side to title glory with a flurry of late-season goals.

Gago is out for this game having played 70 minutes in Stockholm on Wednesday night, but they still boast the same starting XI that won them the championship and are therefore a serious force to be reckoned with.

Argentinos have strengthened quite well but it would be impossible to back them here, and the play simply has to be either a lay of the hosts or backing the visitors outright at 2.26.

Saturday

Boca Juniors v Quilmes AC - 22:15

Boca has been the centre of a soap opera this January - as always - as Juan Román Riquelme continued to toy with the club's heart over a possible return.

If, as expected, he finally goes back to train with the club and makes himself available for selection then it will strengthen the squad at La Bombonera but he won't be fit for some time. Until then, they will have to cover for him with talented young playmaker Leandro Paredes, and he is supported by a midfield reinforced by Ribaír Rodriguez's arrival and will look to feed the proven front pair of Santiago Silva and Juan Manuel Martínez.

Most importantly, they have a new manager, and the dull days of Julio César Falcioni are long gone with the club's most successful ever manager, Carlos Bianchi, coming back to take charge.

Quilmes' season tailed off after Miguel Caneo's injury towards the end of the last campaign, and this lull is likely to continue for a while longer. Gustavo Oberman has potential to be half-decent for them but there's no obvious reason for backing them to repeat their August heroics where they turned Boca over on the opening day.

That said, the hosts' price of 1.59 is not tempting in the slightest, and it may be advisable to leave this one be for now.

San Martín de San Juan v San Lorenzo - 00:30

Two poor sides based on their results over the past 12-18 months, but while San Martín are a largely-ignored provincial team, San Lorenzo are one of the country's five grandes - which is why their possible relegation is causing such a stir in the national press.

The key change to the San Lore squad has been Mauro Cetto's introduction, and he should provide more steel in a poor defence. Going forward they've always had the players to succeed, and if they can keep young forward Alan Ruíz from his European suitors then it will help them no end this season.

The Crows showed last season that you can't trust them as a punter, so backing them outright away from home doesn't seem too wise, but the Draw No Bet at 2.01 is certainly backable.

Sunday

Independiente v Newell's Old Boys - 22:10

Newell's should have won the Torneo Inicial but a combination of losing their bottle and some unfortunately-timed injuries to the likes of Gabriel Heinze was fatal to their chances.

Before then Gerardo Martino looked to have assembled something special in Rosario, playing some fluid football and simply not conceding goals. Far from building on that in January though, players have left the club with no replacements and they will have to fight on two fronts this season with the Copa Libertadores in midweek.

We're not entirely sure what to expect from them, although for Independiente we can expect similar to what we've said about San Lorenzo previously.

Another grande in relegation trouble, they have attempted to spend their way out of trouble and in bringing Daniel 'Rolfi' Montenegro back to the club they may well succeed. Montenegro has a great pedigree and will do well with the Rojo, although Caicedo, the latest Colombian to sign for the club, may well struggle to adapt a bit more.

These sides could well be going in opposite directions, but not knowing exactly where they are yet it may be wiser to stay away from this one, or have a peek at the unders - on the assumption that Martino keeps his side as tight as before Christmas.