Argentina v Venezuela: Albiceleste won't have it all their own way

22Mar 2013

World Cup Brazil 2014

Currently top of the qualification standings, Argentina are putting together a fairly decent case that they are the ones to watch come Brazil 2014. However, with a tough Venezuelan side coming to Buenos Aires and some key absences, could we see another historic upset at el Monumental? Ed Malyon has a look...

Venezuela return to Argentina this week with happy memories.

It is less than two years since they arrived for the 2011 Copa America as rank outsiders, and about another two weeks less since they return to Caracas to a heroes' welcome having come fourth in the tournament, ahead of both Argentina and Brazil.

Having lost the semi-final on penalties, Venezuela were hammered by Peru in the third-place playoff but what they did in that tournament was wake people up to the fact that they were no longer the footballing backwater of long ago, and that they were shrugging off their minnow status under talented young manger Cesar Farias.

Farias took over a national team that had finished second-bottom in qualifying for the 2002 World Cup, second-bottom again in 2006 and third-bottom in 2010, but he set about turning things around.

It began with recruitment. An unusual concept in international management, but one that Farias embraced when he learnt that there were several players playing in Europe that were of Venezuelan descent getting nowhere near their own national teams.

The Feltscher brothers - Rolf and Frank - were both of Swiss origin but had a Venezuelan mother and they both bought in to Farias' vision. After a good showing at the Copa America, Athletic Bilbao's Fernando Amorebieta (who previously had been called up by Spain but had never featured) also was convinced by Farias and made his debut just two months later against Argentina.

With the players that he already had at his disposal, including the brilliant Juan Fernando Arango, this young coach went about building a functional and organised side that was still capable of hurting its opponents, and in the dynamic front pairing of Miku and Salomon Rondon he found that.

A manager not afraid of taking risks, when faced with a double-header of Ecuador and then Argentina in the first round of qualifiers, Farias rested all of his Europe- based players for the game with Ecuador so that they'd be fresh for the blockbuster with Alejandro Sabella's men on the Tuesday.

A defeat to Ecuador heaped pressure on the Vinotinto but a remarkable victory over the Argentines in steamy Puerto La Cruz ensured that his hero status remained in tact.

In a country where the first sport is baseball, Farias and his team have managed to promote football up the nation's sports agenda, and as things stand they are set to qualify for their first ever World Cup.

However, only inside the automatic qualifying places on goal difference, Venezuela are this week faced with a decisive pair of games against arguably the two strongest sides in CONMEBOL, Colombia on Tuesday and of course, Argentina first.

Alejandro Sabella has done a wonderful job to pick up the shattered pieces from the reigns of Diego Maradona and Sergio Batista and to mould Argentina into a cohesive unit.

His settled system has fired them to the top of the qualification standings but he will be tested over the next few days as he is without two of his key players through injury and suspension.

Angel Di Maria plays an important role on the left of a lop-sided midfield, but his ban means that Sabella has had to look elsewhere for options while Sergio Aguero's knee problem means that he drops out of the deadly attacking trident.

Those selected to step in are Walter Montillo and Ezequiel Lavezzi, and while both are very talented individuals there are doubts over their international quality.

Montillo has much success behind him in the Brasileirao but has only really featured for Sabella in the domestic internationals, making a qualifier a significant step up. Lavezzi may be enjoying a good season with Paris Saint-Germain, but his poor performances at the Copa America after a brilliant campaign with Napoli continue to count against him, and the almost telepathic link between Aguero and Lionel Messi is a major loss.

Besides those inclusions, the other question mark over Argentina is at left-back, where Marcos Rojo is yet to convince. The other 75% of that backline is very settled though, and with Ezequiel Garay and Federico Fernandez now cemented as the centre-back partnership, Sabella has a year to find a full-back to play on the opposite side to Pablo Zabaleta - where Rojo probably won't be the answer.

Fortunately for Argentina, Venezuela don't tend to attack with a huge amount of width and the creative minds of Arango and Cesar Gonzalez prefer to drift inside where they are backed up by the likes of tough-tackling Tomas Rincon.

Where Argentina may be susceptible is the set piece, with Venezuela boasting plenty of height and Arango's sensational left boot. It accounted for Chile in the Copa America quarter-final and the Albiceleste must be aware of this danger with them fielding quite a small team comparatively.

As Messi recognised in the press conference, this will be a tough task and one that Argentina need to be prepared for.

"Venezuela will be difficult because they are organised. Last time their goal came from a set piece and it will be hard because they know how to play and they can counter quickly against us."

Match odds

Argentina are understandably favourites, but given their failure to beat Bolivia here, there draw with Peru and an abject performance against Saudi Arabia recently, 1.15 is far too slim against this Venezuelan side.

They will undoubtedly trade at higher prices than that during the game and at such a tiny mark Argentina represent a cast-iron lay-to-back proposition.

Goals

The Vinotinto's resilience and organisation means that their games tend to be fairly low-scoring affairs.

In their last ten qualifiers, just one has seen over 2.5 goals so even though the market may be expecting an Argentine romp, you can back the unders at a value price of 3.15.

Other bets

In a game where one side has been heavily over-rated it usually pays to look at the handicap, and the Asian line for this sees Venezuela +2.0, 2.5 priced at 2.0.

Apart from their horror show in the third-placed playoff, they've only lost by three goals twice in their last 25 games and both came against World Champions Spain.

Argentina will most likely win this game, but they are playing an opponent that is tough to break down when their attack is not at full strength and will most likely take some time to jell.

Another interesting one is Draw/Argentina on the Half Time/Full Time, with the belief that the hosts will break down a resilient opponent after a period of sustained pressure. The price is 5.2.