Against All Odds: Juve and Bayern to keep it tight

10Apr 2013

Bajnokok Ligája

Juventus and Bayern Munich meet in the Champions League this evening and while the Betfair markets are predicting plenty of goals, Paul Robinson thinks the value could be in opposing them.

Juventus lost the first leg in Germany 2-0 and in truth, they were outclassed for the majority of the 90 minutes. The Germans got an early lead and then never looked back, producing an authoritative performance. The Italians best chances fell to Arturo Vidal but he picked up a booking at the Allianz Arena and is suspended tonight, along with defender Stephan Lichtsteiner.

The Old Lady face a huge uphill battle to make the last four and their only chance of doing so is keeping a clean sheet. If they concede then they will need to score four goals and Bayern haven't conceded that many in the Champions League since a 4-0 hammering at Barcelona in 2009.

FCB have their domestic league sewn up so they can 100% focus on avenging their penalty shoot-out final loss to Chelsea last year. They have looked good in this competition for the most part this season, although it's mildly concerning that after securing a 3-1 lead over Arsenal in the last 16, they ended up scraping through after losing the second leg 2-0.

Jupp Heynckes will no doubt remind his players of that before kick off tonight and while they will surely try and get that all important away goal, keeping a clean sheet for as long as possible will be the main objective. Munich have been defensively excellent this term, especially in the Bundesliga as they have conceded just 13 times in 28 matches.

There is plenty of goal threat on show but I'd argue that each sides' defence is the strongest part of their team. The Germans will set out to stifle the Italians and I can see this staying 0-0 for quite a long time. That's why, with over 2.5 goals trading around the 1.88 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.

This match is live on Sky Sports Four at 19:45