Against All Odds: Juniors to defend like schoolboys

17Feb 2013

Argentina - Torneo Inicial

Tigre take on Boca Juniors in Argentina this evening and while the markets are predicting few goals, Paul Robinson has reason to believe that those tuning into Premier Sports or Betfair Live Video at 20:00 should see at least three fly in.

Tigre have begun well in 2013 since the Copa Libertadores and the Primera Division have got underway again from the end of Janaury. After a disappointing run towards the end of 2012, the Matadores are unbeaten in five; winning three and drawing two. What's even more impressive about that run is that four of the five were away from home, one of which was a tricky trip to Venezuela.

As far as the goals go; three of their recent matches have had three or more, while two have gone under 2.5. This is an upturn since last year when their last half dozen all went under 2.5, including a pair of 0-0's. It remains to be seen if this new found openness will continue, but the signs are promising from Néstor Gorosito's side.

The main reason for this selection though is due to Boca Juniors' recent performances. They have played twice since this new campaign has started and their defending has been dreadful. I didn't see their first match that they won 3-2, but I did see their 2-1 defeat http://www.101greatgoals.com/gvideos/boca-juniors-1-toluca-2/ to Toluca on Wednesday night.

Carlos Bianchi's side should have won it comfortably but they defended like schoolboys and were cut open by their Mexican opponents on a number of occasions. It would have actually been worse if Carlos Rodriguez had converted his second half penalty for Toluca.

Games in Argentina can often leave you frustrated if you're looking for goals but under 2.5 is very short here based on recent form and I'm willing to take a chance on it by making it my lay of the day.