Against All Odds: Goals in the JPT

20Feb 2013

Betfair

Crewe host Coventry in the second leg of their Johnstones Paint Trophy Area Final tie and Paul Robinson thinks we're going to be in for goals galore.

After Monday's disappointment we received the perfect tonic in Scotland last night as St Johnstone came from a goal behind to sink our 1.49 lay of Celtic. That takes us into profit for the week and I'm looking to kick on with a similarly priced selection today.

Crewe are on the verge of Wembley after they pulled off a shock 0-3 win at the Ricoh Arena in the first leg of this tie. For those who didn't see it, it was far from a 0-3 game. Alexandra were dominated pretty much from start to finish, yet somehow they managed to score three times from their seven shots while Coventry failed to register from their 25 - 13 of which were on target.

Let's not take anything away from Steve Davis' men though as they got the job done and that's all that matters. While I think they may be vulnerable this evening, the one thing I'm confident about is goals.

These two sides both ply their trade in League One and there are only six points separating the pair, with Crewe having two games in hand to breach the gap. The Sky Blues would be much higher up the table if they could defend better as with 53 scored, they are the fourth highest scorers in the division.

Their matches have averaged 2.82 goals per 90 minutes this term, however that figure shoots up to 3.06 for their games on the road and up again to 3.42 if we just concentrate on their last dozen away from the Ricoh.

Mark Robins may have left the club but that didn't seem to affect them in the 2-0 win at Bury on Saturday and it could have perhaps motivated the players and stand-in manager, Lee Carsley, who feel aggrieved that the former Manchester United forward jumped ship at such a crucial point in the season.

Crewe's matches have been averaging slightly less at 2.52 goals per 90 minutes, but nearly 25% of their games have had four goals or more this term and with the Sky Blues having to attack at all costs, that figure could increase by the final whistle.

I fancy Coventry to win the match, as tipped up in my Big Wednesday Multiple, but the thing I'm most confident about is goals. With under 3.5 trading as low as 1.44 I have to make it my lay of the day.