Against All Odds: Epidemic of goals with Flu in town

6Jun 2013

Betfair

Reigning champions Fluminense travel to Coritiba tonight in the Brazilian Campeonato and Paul Robinson thinks that despite the Betfair markets favouring a low scoring clash, there should be plenty of goals.

Coritiba finished mid-table last season but they warmed up for this year's campaign by winning the Paranaense One - beating Atletico PR 5-3 on aggregate in the Championship Final at the beginning of May. They've since suffered a humiliating setback in the Copa do Brasil at the hands of minnows Nacional AM, but they've put that behind them to be undefeated in the league after three matches.

Only one of those three fixtures went over 2.5 goals, but that was at least the one they played at home. Marquinhos Santos' side certainly know how to find the back of the net in front of their own fans as they've not failed to score at Estádio Couto Pereira since August 2012 - a spell of 27 matches in all competitions. Eighteen of those 27 finished with three goals or more and six of their last eight meetings with Fluminense have gone over 2.5.

Fluminense had a wonderful campaign last year as not only did they win Serie A, they reached the quarter-finals of the Copa Libertadores. They reached the Libertadores quarters again this term but while they lost to the then all mighty Boca Juniors in 2012, they suffered a disappointing exit at the hands of Olimpia this time around.

Abel Braga's men have got over that though to win their opening two fixtures in the Campeonato - netting five goals as both games went over 2.5. Flu were excellent on their travels last year, losing just twice, failing to score on only one occasion. Brazilian striker Fred is their main man and while he's away on international duty, they have other players who can score.

I rate under 2.5 goals as an odds-against chance, so as it's trading around the 1.86 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.