Against All Odds: Benfica just too short for Primeira Liga clash

17Mar 2013

Betfair

Benfica are long odds-on for their trip to Guimaraes in the Primeria Liga this evening and while they are the most likely winners, Paul Robinson thinks their price is just too short and has to be opposed.

Guimaraes are up to sixth in the league after back to back victories and after just missing out on European qualification last term, they have a great shot of making amends this time around. Pacos de Ferreira may be out of sight in fourth place, but they are level on points with Rio Ave in the last remaining qualifying spot, with only goal difference splitting them.

After a bit of a shaky start to their campaign at home, Rui Vitória's side have won three of their last five at Estádio D. Afonso Henriques, losing just one to the reigning champions Porto. All those victories came with clean sheets and when they played Benfica at home last season, they beat them 1-0.

Benfica are flying at the moment - unbeaten in the league and through to the quarter-finals of the Europa. They've won their last four Primeira Liga matches to nil, scoring a total of 10 goals. They really are in red-hot form, with Oscar Cardozo leading the way with 25 goals in all competitions.

They aren't completely infallible though as Braga managed to knock them out of the Taca da Liga on penalties at the end of February and another concern I have is that they had a hard game in France on Thursday against Bordeaux.

It's quite clear that Jorge Jesus' men are the worthy favourites for this clash, but they are far from nailed on. Guimaraes are running into a bit of form and will take hope from the fact that they haven't lost to them in the league at home for two seasons. Add in the fact that Benfica have had less than 72 hours since their last match and it makes me believe that their odds of 1.39 are just too short and have to be opposed. That's why, at the prices, I have to make them my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet

Lay Benfica v Guimaraes @ 1.39

This match is available on Betfair Live Video at 20:30