Against All Odds: Bayern and Barca to keep it tight

23Apr 2013

Bajnokok Ligája

It's Champions League semi-final time as Bayern Munich host Barcelona live on ITV1 at 19:45 and Paul Robinson thinks we'll be in for a low scoring game despite the attacking talent on show.

It's been a rough four weeks as after hovering around the break even mark, things have plummeted in the last month. United leading 3-0 after 33 minutes and then there being no more goals in the final hour really hurt given the lay of under 3.5, and the less said about Shinji Kagawa's miss the better. Variance is a big part of gambling though and things will turn around. Chasing is never a good option and the road to riches is sticking with what you know and have confidence that despite recent results, the reasoning was sound.

Bayern Munich qualified for the final after easing past Juventus 4-0 on aggregate. That result underlined their quality as the Italian champions are an excellent side who are on the brink of winning their second Serie A title in a row. The Germans warmed up for this match with a 6-1 thrashing of Wolfsburg with Mario Gomez came off the bench to score a six minute hat trick. Gomez will likely the lead the line tonight as first choice striker Mario Mandzukic is suspended but I wouldn't be overly confident about him continuing his scoring exploits.

Josef Heynckes is not only without the services of his hard working Croatian striker, he will also have to make do without Tony Kroos who was injured against Juventus. Kroos and Mandzukic can't easily be replaced and while Arjen Robben will deputise for the young German, FCB are definitely weaker in the duo's absence.

A place where Munich aren't weak though is at the back. The Bundesliga Champions in waiting have conceded just 14 times in 30 league matches this term and in Manuel Neuer they have one of, if not the best goalkeeper in the world.

Barcelona have scraped through the last two rounds of this competition having been pushed to the limit by both AC Milan and PSG. They needed something special to dig them out of a hole at the Nou Camp on each occasion and it was of course Lionel Messi who came up with the goods. The Argentine has sat out their last two league games as he recovers from injury but he will definitely be in the first XI at the Allianz Arena.

Tito Vilanova's men have been poor away from home in Europe this term compared to their own high standards. They lost to Celtic in the group phase, lost 2-0 at the San Siro and then were held 2-2 in Paris. Bayern are on another level to those teams so they will have to do better or the tie could be over after the first leg. That's why I think Barca will keep it much tighter at the back than they have done this season as scoring three or four against the Germans just isn't realistic.

There is plenty of attacking talent on show but now we're at the business end of the Champions League, we could be in for a tense, cagey affair. Bayern Munich are without two first choice offensive players and Barcelona have managed to keep three clean sheets in their last four games. That's why, with under 2.5 goals trading at around the 1.92 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.