Against All Odds: Atletico MG to keep it tight for a change

30May 2013

Copa Libertadores

In tonight's Copa Libertadores action live on ESPN and Betfair Live Video from 02:00 GMT, Atletico MG take on Tijuana in what Paul Robinson believes will be a low scoring affair.

This is the second leg of their quarter-final clash with the victor going on to face Newell's Old Boys in the semis. The first leg between the pair finished 2-2 in Mexico last week and with a couple of away goals in the bag, the Brazilians are red-hot favourites to progress.

Atletico MG are a free-scoring side, especially at home. In their last 14 games at Estádio Independência they have netted a minimum of two goals each time - keeping just three clean sheets. The difference tonight is that they don't need to score loads of goals, in fact, they don't even need to win. A 0-0 or 1-1 draw would suffice and I expect Cuca to send his team out with a more cautious approach.

Tijuana on the other-hand need to score at least once to have any chance of qualifying. An upset was on the cards as they led 2-0 at the hour mark in last Thursday's match, but a Diego Tardelli strike in the 66th minute tipped the balance back in favour of Mineiro and the injury time equaliser from Luan hammered home the advantage.

The Mexicans pulled off a shock by beating Palmeiras in the last round after drawing 0-0 at home. They managed to score twice in Brazil to run out 2-1 winners, but this is a further step up in class and I don't envisage a repeat.

Antonio Mohamed's men have fired five blanks in their last seven away matches and I am quite confident of that being six from eight after tonight. Atletico MG don't need to win though and given that they won't be going all out for goals, at around the 1.88 mark, I have to make over 2.5 goals my lay of the day.