Against All Odds: Andreazzoli's Roma to keep it tight

7May 2013

Serie A 2010/11

The live Serie A match on ESPN tonight features Roma and Chievo and while the Betfair markets are predicting plenty of goals, Paul Robinson thinks that those who tune in at 19:45 may be left disappointed.

Roma picked up a magnificent victory at Fiorentina at the weekend and those three points have kept them in pole position for the final remaining Europa League spot in Serie A. Udinese and Lazio are snapping at their heels though so a victory at home tonight is a must.

The Yellow-Reds are the top scorers in the division this term and bar the rock bottom Pescara, they have conceded the most too. Those stats were mainly achieved under the cavalier style of Zdeněk Zeman though and since Aurelio Andreazzoli took over 13 games ago, things have been a bit different.

In the league, six of Roma's last eight have all gone under 2.5 goals, with four of their last half dozen at Stadio Olimpico following suit. They produced a thoroughly professional defence display in Florence at the weekend and if they are in similar mood, it's hard to see Chievo scoring.

Chievo look set for another mid-table finish and given their start to the season, they'd probably take that. After losing five of their first six, Eugenio Corini was appointed as manager and he has managed to get the club up to 13th place, eight points clear of danger.

One of the main problems they've had this year is scoring goals. With just 33 to their name, they have the third lowest total in Serie A. They've netted just once in the last four matches, but fortunately they've conceded just once themselves. Seven of their last eight have had two goals or less and they played out a 0-0 draw with Cagliari last time.

I wouldn't be shocked if Roma produced a swashbuckling performance and blew away Chievo this evening, however I think there is serious value in laying over 2.5 goals at the current prices. It's trading at around the 1.52 mark and with Andreazzoli at the helm, it just has to be my lay of the day.