Africa Cup of Nations 2013: Look beyond the obvious

11Jan 2013

Ivory Coast are runaway favourites to win the Africa Cup of Nations but there are better value betting options to consider, says James Eastham.

If it feels like the last Africa Cup of Nations was only five minutes ago that's because - in footballing terms - it was. The last edition of the tournament took place in Gabon and Equatorial Guinea just 12 months ago, when Zambia lifted the trophy for the first time.

Now the event moves to South Africa, where last year's beaten finalists Ivory Coast start as 2.78 favourites. Last year was generally regarded as the final chance for that nation's great generation of players to get their hands on the prize, but the fact this competition is being staged so soon after the last means the team has stayed largely intact and must be taken seriously. On paper, they are the stand-out side. Yaya Toure, Didier Drogba, Didier Zokora, Salomon Kalou and a host of other familiar faces are all there, and having come so close last time, they will be motivated.

Ghana are 7.8 second favourites despite the absence of their best player, Andre Ayew, who missed a deadline to have his hamstring injury assessed by medical staff this week. One of Africa's finest players, Ayew will be missed. His absence deals a potentially fatal blow to the Black Stars' hopes of becoming champions.

Hosts South Africa (9.2), Nigeria (10.5) and holders Zambia (11.5) are next in the betting, followed by Mali (16.0), Algeria (16.0), Morocco (18.0) and Tunisia (19.0).

I like Morocco - France-based players Zakaria Bergdich, Abdelhamid El Kaoutari, Younes Belhanda and Chahir Belghazouani arrive in fine form, and they have a good striker in Youssef El Arabi, even though he has struggled to show it in national team colours. Mali's squad is packed with power and talent (Samba Sow, Sambou Yatabare and Cheick Fantamady Diarra are names to look out for) while Algeria have two of the tournament's most technically accomplished players in Ryad Boudebouz and new Marseille signing Foued Kadir. I would recommend two of Morocco, Mali and Algeria as back-to-lay bets or in the 'To Reach The Final' market.

The first outsider to consider is Burkina Faso. They have landed in one of the more winnable groups (Group C alongside Zambia, Nigeria and Ethiopia) and have two outstanding attacking players in Lorient's Alain Traore and Rennes' Jonathan Pitroipa. The former is a superb finisher, often from outside the penalty area, and the latter one of the continent's most exciting, effective dribblers. The presence of the pair makes Burkina Faso's 60.0 odds to win the tournament and 6.2 to win Group C look too big.

The second is Cape Verde. Ranked joint-13th to win the tournament at 80.0, they are as big as 13.0 to win an admittedly tough Group A (South Africa, Morocco and Angola complete the pool) yet I can see them causing a few upsets because they have one of the tournament's finest young footballers in Lille's Ryan Mendes, an explosive attacker with good finishing ability. Also look out for flying winger Odair Fortes and striker Julio Tavares, who is excellent in the air and has a deft left foot. Tavares, who plays for Dijon in France's Ligue 2 Dijon, is an unknown at this level, but has the talent to succeed.

Best Bet

Morocco to Reach The Final @ 5.1

Other Recommended Bets

Mali to Reach The Final @ 3.55

Burkina Faso to Win Group C @ 6.2

Cape Verde Back-to-Lay Outright Winner @ 80.0