A quartet of English football selections

8Dec 2012

Premier League

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection each from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Fixed Odds Multiple option...

Southampton 1.85 v Reading 4.0; The Draw 3.6

I have a sneaky feeling that Reading will win at Southampton, no doubt married to my even brasher assertion that the relegation favourites will stay up. However, the stats don't exactly support that hunch so I'm going for the far easier to justify over 2.5 goals as this week's bet.

Only Manchester United's Premier League games have featured more goals than the Saints' this season. Their recent fixtures have been uncharacteristically low on action, though those tellingly came against the less erratic trio of Newcastle, Norwich and Liverpool. Southampton's last two clashes with fellow bottom-six fodder by contrast produced nine goals, with no clean sheets in sight.

The case for a Reading encounter yielding three or more goals is even easier to state. Their last match was the 3-4 epic against Manchester United, their past dozen games contained 50 goals (four in extra time) and they have fired 10 times in eight away outings.

Michael Lintorn's selection: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.7

Peterborough 3.6 v Middlesbrough 1.95; The Draw 3.4

It's a pretty straightforward selection this week. Peterborough are a pretty poor outfit that don't score many - in their eight league defeats at London Road they've managed just six goals. Darren Ferguson's men are on a desperate run of form too, and they've lost 80% of their games on home soil.

So the last thing Posh need right now is a visit from Middlesbrough, a side that score goals for fun (18 different players have scored for the Teessiders this term) and play really well away from home, a view vindicated by the fact that they have won eight times on the road in all competition already this season. Middlesbrough should win fairly comfortably.

Mike Norman's selection: Back Middlesbrough to win @ 1.95

Carlisle United 3.1 v Sheffield United 2.15, the draw 3.3

Greg Abbott might start to feel a bit of pressure as Carlisle United manager following a poor recent run of results. I like Abbott and find him thought-provoking in his analysis, however the stats and figures don't lie. The Cumbrians have slipped down the table and have lost eight games at home this season - way too many.

Carlisle's problem is their woeful defence, heavy defeats at Brunton Park in November included reverses of 1-3 and 1-4, whilst the number of goals shipped on home soil is the most in the division at 25. For over 2.5 goals backers, eight of their last nine games have all been over that target, and the odds on them keeping a clean sheet are very slim.

On the plus side they have some good young players, but were again outclassed during Saturday's 1-3 home defeat to Bournemouth and heavy defeats at home are becoming the norm.

Sheffield United are title contenders and have always been fairly reliable in the under 2.5 goals stakes this season (bar two crazy games last month). They don't score too many away from home (eight in total), but they don't concede many either (seven). They can dominate games too, but Danny Wilson will need to iron out some of the defensive errors that have been creeping in to their matches recently.

The under and overs call is a tough one this weekend with both at the opposite ends of the spectrum. However, Sheffield United look a decent bet to beat their shaky and low on confidence opponents this weekend.

Alan Dudman's selection: Back Sheffield United to win @ 2.15

Port Vale 2.05 v Chesterfield 3.4; The Draw 3.1

Port Vale suffered last-minute FA Cup disappointment last weekend but have a chance to get over it pretty quickly as they concentrate on the important aim - promotion. They have two-fold incentive this weekend to keep them keen: keep ahead of Rotherham just behind them, who host leaders Gillingham who they want to catch. Micky Adams' men could go top and he has a selection headache, with everybody fit. Marc Richards reflects that matters have not gone to plan at his new club, Chesterfield, after his summer switch from Port Vale. The visitors have not conceded in three of four away games, but have not scored many either. Tom Pope can have the goals flowing for Vale.

Ian Lamont's selection: Back Port Vale to win at 2.05

Recommended Multiple

Back Over 2.5 Goals in Southampton v Reading @ 1.7; Back Middlesbrough @ 1.95; Back Sheff Utd @ 2.15; Back Port Vale @ 2.05; The Multiple pays approximately 15.0